MARKETS: WoodMac sees EU gas output reaching 77 bcm with policy support

(SpaceEnergy) European Union domestic gas production could reach 77bn cubic metres by 2042 under supportive policies, compared with 2bn cubic metres by 2050 without new investment, Wood Mackenzie said.

The consultancy’s new report models low, mid and high domestic production cases to 2050. Imports currently meet 85% of EU gas demand, leaving the bloc heavily exposed to liquefied natural gas supply after Russian pipeline volumes were displaced.

Under Wood Mackenzie’s current outlook, domestic production remains near 40bn cubic metres until 2038 but supplies no more than 17% of demand. A supportive-policy case lifts output to 77bn cubic metres by 2042, covering 38% of demand.

Almost 1tn cubic metres separates the modelled production cases, equivalent to displacement of more than 600 LNG cargoes annually. Wood Mackenzie estimates exploration would provide 70% of the additional volumes, concentrated in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean, although those resources remain undiscovered.

The analysis also compares European domestic gas and LNG breakeven costs, fiscal attractiveness and investment conditions. Natural gas is a key upstream feedstock for methane-based launch propellant supply chains.